南方财经全媒体记者 李依农 上海报道
Editors note:
After over 40 years , is Chinas ? The data gave the . Chinas grew than in the first , its . At the same time, Sachs, , UBS and Bank their for China . and , how will Chinas this year? Has Chinas ? Chief and chief from will share their to SFC and s "Chiefs View on China".
The of Chinas shows , with the of to and . , data by the of that in the first four of this year, the total value of Chinas goods trade and 13.81 yuan, a 5.7% . The trade is . The Fund that in 2024, China will the of in the and .
How we the in the first , and what are the ? Yi Xiong, Bank Chinas Chief , his on these in an with SFC.
Dr. Xiong noted that both Chinas and in the first , and . has also made a to .
ahead to , Dr. Xiong Chinas to by , , and . China is to a role in in the and , with in both the trade and , .
SFC and : Chinas GDP in the first of 2024 by 5.3% , . What are the key this ?
Yi Xiong: Chinas GDP in the first , it s . If we look at the of , we see that both the and good . The saw 5% , while the grew by 6%. , this does not mean that the , as we have to the base from last years first , where the base was low, and the has to . So, the base , we can say that both the and our .
If we the , it that the among is in the of . We also , for , the New Year and among other , have all very well. This that there is a and in and a where s is .
As for the , we feel that its has also been than . One in this could be Chinas . Weve seen some well. Also, I think have a role in the last year the was . But this year, weve seen the , not just in China but , . This has also to a in Chinas .
Of , we also see that there are still some in the . The first is that the price level might still be a low rate of . The is the real , such as , along with the s on the . It might still be at a lower level to .
, , we think that the in the first has s . This also the and of Chinas .
SFC and : We also that Bank has its for Chinas GDP in 2024 by 0.5 to 5.2%. What drove this , and from which does the stem?
Yi Xiong: I think the for the three .
As , the has been good, and the this, I think the first is that in the , some , the of is . This is to what we see, for , in .
It is also tied to the sales of Chinas . For , in the , , are very quick with and , which also a level of . So, the of , I , is the first of in .
And the comes from the of . This year, our is , to a of 5%. To this , there are also to . Many of these will start to take from the of this year. For , we see bond , bonds, to the of major . Also, like of goods, and , and so on. These will also start to take in the . This also gives us more in the rate of the .
, from our own , is from the of . We a is , where the real may still be in a state, and there is for to fall, are more to . This may when we that that house may not , and after rates have , the of is . Thus, when do the math, they can see that they can spend more.
I think these three are the we are more about the and have the .
SFC and : You have that Chinas for 2024 will be a in . Why is that?
Yi Xiong: Lets look at the . , the over the past was above 5%, which is good. Last year, it also a 5% rate. , if we look over a , the rate of Chinas has down. So, we have made some , and the of our that the rate of the is still to be low, to the rate the could .
So compared to its potential, the best performance has not been realized. That is, in a term of economics, there is a negative output gap, meaning the economy could perform even better. The reasons it has not performed better yet are likely due to constraints such as insufficient demand, preventing the economy from returning to its ideal track.
So, this , I think the to the gap, and the back on track, are not only for the this year, but also on its in the years. , with this , we still set this years at 5%, and aim to the gap, and more . I for the in the next 3 to 5 years, all these will have a on the .
SFC and : You . So, how can we exert and ? What kind of space is there for ?
Yi Xiong: The with the right now is . This is in areas. In this, there are two . One is the price level. The rate of is still at a low level. The is the of real . there may be some signs of , there hasn been a yet.
So, I think if we want to solve the of , then we still need to make more in these two . These are areas where both and can be .
As for the , I think there is also scope. that since now, CPI and PPI, have come down so much, the real rate is still high. Under such , I think to lower rates , thus rates, would to and or . This is also an role for to and boost .
For the real , I think this is also an area where and can work . It has gone a . To the , it may both and to work from both the and sides, and make , to price . This could the real to .
, is high, tend to and rise. , , on or , has room to .
As for , there is also scope to . Given that , CPI and PPI, have , the real rate high. Under these , I that to lower rates can and or . This is for to and .
In the real , I think this is an area where and can . a , may from both and , both and sides to price . This could lead to a for the real .
SFC and : You the of the this April. What are the of the , and what has it sent?
Yi Xiong: There were from the . Given time , Ill what I are the two most .
, the new real are and . One new that stood out is the focus on , a key in the real . After three years of , theres a of stock for and this could and . The study into for , such as in major , , and some into units. These are to be in the .
, the of the Third of the 20th CPC is also . , Chinas on a . The of Chinas the of and up to and drive and . These are worth , with for more in the .
SFC and : the of , how do view and ?
Yi Xiong: In weeks, there has been a shift in among China. For , the Hong Kong has seen a seen in the past five to ten years. Many are now that "China is back in the game." to this shift.
, , Hong Kong , and are to due to . This has led to an of in , many to their to these .
, in Chinas , with and in the first , are risks. This makes more to funds into .
ahead, in will in the . and could asset , them to lead in the .
SFC and : How will bank , the of the , and the U.S. the ?
Yi Xiong: Lets talk about the first. The of the have a very on . The rates and rates of the U.S. the risk for asset . When the other and U.S. rates are high, tend to think that , like U.S. bonds, offer high , so theres no need to take on risk by in other .
Although the timing of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has faced setbacks earlier this year, the market still expects the Fed to cut rates by the end of the year. Other central banks may cut rates even earlier, such as the European Central Bank possibly starting rate cuts by mid-year. In this environment, as the expectation of Fed rate cuts materializes, risk assets may become more attractive.
to the Feds , I think the U.S. may add more . Based on , this years U.S. very . The will for U.S. . If Trump is , he might , on China, which would add to trade and . , the might . , the U.S. is a major event for to , and asset .
SFC and : In the World by the Fund (IMF), the for 2024 was to 3.2%, an of 0.1 from the . What are your for the ?
Yi Xiong: The IMFs of rates with our , as the has shown signs of or from the of the year to now. Not only have our this , but our in the US and have also their for .
This the of the at the of the year, there was about , with of lower rates to the year. , it now that this years is on an and may even last years rate. , I this on .
The key of are the and China. The US has , with in its job and , and Chinas has also shown . When these two major show , more about , which is .
SFC and : How do you view China and Asias to ?
Yi Xiong: I the US and China , but, we China the of Asia, as Asia the most of for the . Last year, Asia of , with half of this, about 30%, from China alone. So, China a of .
, Asia as a whole also to . This India, where has been high, and Asia, which a to high rate. Even Japan, after a of , has shown signs of , both in terms of and the . , Asia , that Asia is to to .
Why can Asia such ? I the of the Asian has been quite . At , Asian and are among the most and . This is a for Asias .
ahead, with the Asian and for , Asian may also play a more role in , which could be a new of in Asia.
SFC and : In your , which will be the of ?
Yi Xiong: From the s , the level of , or the gap and , has been over the past few . We now say that is a big issue, but if we look at it on a scale, in fact, has been . The trend in the past is to in the .
So, I think the first of is the of gaps, which will of and the of , which can an of for the world . Not only Asia, but some in the East and even have also good over the past . So, I think this is the first of .
As for the , from the of and , we have seen a lot of in the field of in the past few years. Here, I think one is the .
The of the , from fuels to green , has just begun. There is still a vast room for here, and such a can the of the world . After all, to the fuels, green has an , and with the of , its cost is also .
The new field is the rapid of , which is what we have seen, since last year. Our view is that may be very in the next five to ten years, which will the in many .
it is still in its now, and its are still , it is that the of AI would with the of . It could drive the , not only in , but also in terms of . So, I think these two are the most for .
SFC and : In your view, what role do you China in these ?
Yi Xiong: I think first, it is very to the , but if we look at the in the past, in the field of green , it could be said that China has been up and . China might have a bit late, but after the in the past , in many of green , China has the of the world. , I the role China plays in this field will be very over the next 10 to 20 years and may even be .
In terms of , so far, the most come from the , but we also see that in the field of , China is in a among all the . Many are also their in AI and they have made huge .
If we look at the human in the field of , found that the of in this field is high, and it might be the in the world. So, if we can and to in this field, I China will also well in this field.
策划：于晓娜
监制：施诗
责任编辑：李依农
记者：李依农
制作：李群
新媒体统筹：丁青云 曾婷芳 赖禧 曾昭发
海外运营监制: 黄燕淑
海外运营内容统筹: 黄子豪
海外运营编辑：庄欢 吴婉婕 龙李华 张伟韬
出品：南方财经全媒体集团
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